Price analysis 8/12: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, MATIC, AVAX
Bitcoin and many altcoins are carving out bottoming patterns as sentiment across the crypto and equities markets continues to improve.
Bitcoin (BTC) could not overcome the barrier at $25,000 on Aug. 11 even though it had two catalysts in the form of a “favorable” Consumer Price Index print and news that BlackRock — the world’s largest asset manager, overseeing over $10 trillion in total assets — had launched a spot Bitcoin investment product.
In comparison, Ether (ETH) has managed to hold on to its recent gains on news that the Goerli testnet had successfully activated proof-of-stake, clearing the path for Ethereum’s mainnet transition planned for Sept. 15 or 16. Data from Santiment shows that Ether whale transactions have increased along with possible whale accumulation.
However, analysts remain divided about the prospects of the current recovery. While some believe that Bitcoin’s rally could rise above $28,000, others are not so bullish and they expect the price to turn down and resume the downtrend.
Could buyers clear the overhead hurdle in Bitcoin and select altcoins? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin nudged above the overhead resistance at $24,668 on Aug. 11 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. This indicates that bears have not yet given up and are selling on rallies.
The price remains squeezed between the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($23,151) and $24,668. Usually, a tight range trading is followed by a range expansion but it is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout with certainty.
In this case, the 20-day EMA is gradually sloping up and the relative strength index (RSI) is in the positive territory, indicating the path of least resistance is to the upside.
If buyers thrust and sustain the price above $25,000, the bullish momentum could pick up and the pair could rally to $28,000 and then to $32,000.
This positive view could invalidate in the near term if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA. The pair could then decline to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($21,845).
Ether attempted to rise above $2,000 on Aug. 11 but the long wick on the day’s candlestick suggests that bears are defending the level with vigor.
However, a positive sign is that the bulls have not ceded ground to the bears. This suggests that traders are not hurrying to book profits as they anticipate the up-move to continue.
The upsloping moving averages and the RSI near the overbought territory indicate advantage to buyers. If bulls drive the price above $2,000, the ETH/USDT pair could rally to the downtrend line.
Alternatively, if the price turns down sharply from the current level, the bears will try to sink the pair to the breakout level of $1,700. The bulls are expected to buy the dip to this support.
BNB has been facing stiff resistance at the overhead resistance zone between $338 to $350. Although bears have repeatedly thwarted attempts by the bulls to clear this hurdle, the buyers have not given up much ground. This indicates that the bulls are not rushing to the exit as they expect a move higher.
A tight consolidation near the overhead resistance increases the likelihood of a break above it. If that happens, the BNB/USDT pair could attempt a rally to $380 and then to $414.
The important support to watch out for on the downside is the 20-day EMA ($300). If bears sink the price below this level, the pair could decline to $275 and then to the 50-day SMA ($261). A break below this support could tilt the advantage in favor of the bears.
Ripple (XRP) remains stuck between the overhead resistance at $0.39 and the 20-day EMA ($0.37). The bears attempted to resolve this uncertainty in their favor on Aug. 9 and 10 but the bulls purchased the dip and pushed the price back above the 20-day EMA.
The buyers tried to push the price above $0.39 on Aug. 11 but the bears held their ground. This indicates that $0.39 and the 50-day SMA ($0.35) are the critical levels to watch out for in the short term.
If buyers clear the overhead hurdle, the XRP/USDT pair could rally to $0.48 and later to $0.54. On the contrary, if the price slips below the 50-day SMA, the pair could slide toward the crucial support at $0.30.
Buyers attempted to push Cardano (ADA) above the overhead resistance at $0.55 on Aug. 11 but the bears held the level successfully. The price could now drop to the 20-day EMA ($0.51).
The tight range trading between the 20-day EMA and $0.55 is unlikely to continue for long. If buyers drive the price above $0.55, the ADA/USDT pair could rally to $0.63 and then to the stiff overhead resistance at $0.70.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, the bears will attempt to challenge the support at $0.45. If the support holds, the pair may extend the consolidation between $0.45 and $0.55 for some more time.
Solana (SOL) bounced off the 50-day SMA ($39) on Aug. 10, indicating that bulls continue to buy at lower levels. The bulls attempted to push the price to the overhead resistance at $48 but the bears stalled the recovery at $45.32 on Aug. 11.
The SOL/USDT pair could continue to trade inside the ascending triangle formation for some more time. The bears will have to sink the price below the support line to invalidate this bullish setup.
Alternatively, the bulls will have to push and sustain the price above $48 to complete the bullish pattern. If that happens, the pair could rally to $60 and then make a move to the pattern target at $71.
Dogecoin (DOGE) once again turned down from the overhead resistance at $0.08 on Aug. 11, indicating that bears continue to defend the level aggressively.
The bears will attempt to sink the price below the moving averages and challenge the trendline of the ascending triangle pattern. A break and close below this support will invalidate the bullish setup, opening the doors for a possible retest of $0.06.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price rebounds off the moving averages, it will suggest that bulls continue to buy at lower levels. The bulls will have to push the price above $0.08 to complete the ascending triangle pattern. If that happens, the DOGE/USDT pair may rally to $0.10.
Polkadot (DOT) has been witnessing a close battle between the bulls and the bears near the breakout level of $9. The bears are attempting to pull the price back below $9 while the bulls are trying to flip the level into support.
The rising 20-day EMA ($8.47) and the RSI in the positive territory, indicating advantage to buyers. If the price rises from the current level and breaks above $9.65, the DOT/USDT pair could rally to $10.80 and later to $12.
Alternatively, if the price breaks below the strong support zone of $9 and the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the recent breakout may have been a bull trap. The pair could then decline to the 50-day SMA ($7.62).
Polygon (MATIC) has been trading in a tight range between the 20-day EMA ($0.88) and $0.96 for the past few days, indicating indecision among buyers and sellers.
If this uncertainty resolves to the upside, the MATIC/USDT pair could rally to the stiff overhead resistance at $1.02. The bulls will have to overcome this barrier to signal the start of the next leg of the up-move to $1.26 and later to $1.50.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, the short-term advantage could tilt in favor of the bears. The pair could then decline to the strong support at $0.75.
Avalanche (AVAX) has been trading above the breakout level of $26.38 for the past few days which suggests that bulls are in no hurry to surrender their advantage.
The gradually rising 20-day EMA ($25.6) and the RSI near the overbought zone indicate advantage to buyers. If bulls propel the price above $31, the AVAX/USDT pair could pick up momentum and rally to $33 and later to the pattern target of $39.05.
This positive view could invalidate in the near term if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the pair could decline to the 50-day SMA ($21.91) and then to the support line.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.
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